Why Radio will never go away

I saw a commercial last night from Sirius. It's a great campaign all about discovering new music. Something dawned on me. I’d always thought radio would sort of whither away. I’d don’t listen to much radio. My work commute is only 15 or 20 minutes, and then I’m listening to NPR. If I’m in the car any longer, I have my iPod plugged in and I’m listening to my own 2,000 song radio station. I call it: K F E J.

Now, I love music. No. You don’t understand. I really, really love music. My blood pressure rises with the volume. My heartbeat follows the tempo. It’s a lifelong thing. So, whether or not radio will whither, here is the reason it shouldn’t: Accidental Discovery.

I feel the same way about Electronic encyclopedias and Google Maps and the Internet in general. Online search has gotten so good; you find what you want so quickly and easily that you can miss the things you didn’t know you wanted to know. I have found most of my new music from friends and the occasional sleepless night watching MTV. Yes. Music Television does still play music videos in the middle of the night.

Sure there is an argument to be made over the myspace music section or for any of the dozens of independent music sites where you can find tons of free independent music. But, frankly, there’s a lot crap to wad through there. I want someone to do some the weeding out for me. I found Maxwell one day while I was napping through the old Rosie O’Donnell Show. With Muse, it was one evening while I was reading and had my Dish Network TV box tuned to the Modern Alternative Rock channel. I found My Chemical Romance one night on MTV that my spring allergies wouldn’t let me sleep.

The randomness of radio done right can let you stumble on to new and old favorites. Music you forgot about, or never know existed. But AM-FM radio has been in trouble. Most areas across the country only have a dozen or so options, with fewer than that coming in without static. And these frustrations have given birth to the satellite radio phenomenon.

But the thing holding up satellite radio is the “format” battle. Do you want XM or Sirius. Sirius has Howard Stern and Martha Stewart. XM has Opie & Anthony and Oprah. It may sound like deciding between satellite-TV providers, but it’s not. The difference is Dish Network, DirecTV and Cable all show the same channels (Food Network, Bravo, FX, local affiliates…); subscribers are paying for the content delivery. Satellite radio is both different content and delivery.

At some point XM and Sirius are going to get together. One’s going to buy the other, or there’ll be some crazy merger or synergistic alliance where subscribers to either can listen to content from both. Then it’ll work just like the cable TV and we won’t think about it.

And it’s not all roses for satellites. First of all there aren’t local stations available on satellite radio. And I’m not sure the masses are ready to pay for music during their commute. Sirius signed up Howard Stern for $100 Million a year, and then signed up more than a million new subscribers. Yet even with those results Stern has fretted repeatedly about his audience's not following him to Sirius.

But terrestrial radio has hope. Think about the recent surge of the nearly talk-free Jack-FM. And then there’s HD Radio. Think HDTV: but only audio and in your car or on your deck. While only about 7% of the nation's radio stations offer HD a broadcast, the tipping point for HD radio is going to be cars. And at some point radios are just going to switch. When you buy a new radio, it’ll have HD capability whether you want it or not. You won’t have to think about it or pay extra for the service.

The “important” thing here is that any one of these offerings creates a new revenue stream for retailers and manufacturers in the form of new hardware. So stores and factories will hedge their bets to make sure they don’t pick the wrong horse.

For satellite you need to cough up the dough for both the hardware and the service. For HD Radio, you need only cough up the dough for the radio; the content is free. But even then, if you still want to hear un-FCC-encumbered entertainment and your favorite stars, you’re going to have to go satellite; but it’s gonna cost you. You’ll need to help pay for things like Sirius’ great new ad campaign.