The Future is Now

So, news this week has brought us two reports of convenience trouncing quality. Following the MP3 over SACD consumer choice, we’ve got movie downloads being introduced at the same time that HD-DVD and Blu-Ray technologies are struggling to stay in the news/consumer’s mind. As I have said, never mind the Coke vs. Pepsi style blue ray technology battle trying to form in the media. Blue ray technology is too expensive, and it will remain that way for a couple more years. It will take off when it breaks $100 and is seamlessly coupled with current DVD technology. But even then, Blue Ray recorders will be used to save downloaded movies from places like CinemaNow and MovieLink, not to rebuild movie archives in prerecorded HD-DVDs.

Convenience is going to win, as it usually does. How do I know? I’m lazy, too.

But what of iTunes, I might ask. What with the current Video iPod and the forthcoming, “true” video iPod expected now in the first quarter 2007. Will iTunes do for movie downloads what it dod for music and music video downloads? It is going to let us rent movies over iTunes. But, I’m beginning to have my doubts.

Here’s why: the primary use of movie downloads will not be viewing on a 2-inch, 3.5-inch or 5-inch screen. Listening to music is generally something people do alone. Movies, on the other hand, are usually watched in a group. The video iPod is great for people to watch old episodes of Rocketboom or last nights Daily Show during their daily commute, but a 120-minute movie is a little too long, unless you’re on an airplane. And most won’t crowd around something the size of your palm. The primary viewing locations are going to range from 42-inch plasmas to 12-inch in-car DVD systems.

Even still, movie downloads are going to take off when the link from the computer to the TV is just as rote as connecting the DVD player. So satellite companies and digital cable companies already have a big headstart, since their machines are already plugged into the TV. Where Apple or another computer hardware company might make this happen is with a wireless connection, ala Wifi. See: Airport Express. I fully expect Apple next generation Airport Express to include a video output, letting my plug into the S-Video or HDMI port of my 37-inch LCD.

Keep in mind, sometimes the secret to the general population excepting a technology advance is by bringing a new piece of hardware into the house. It seems counter-intuitive that you can do great new things like buy movies over the Internet, with the same old stuff you've always had. So make it a new piece of hardware that's affordable, aspirational, technical and easy (Refer to the iPod in 2001).